MyDD :: Could Pennsylvania Have two Senate Races in 2006?

Could Pennsylvania Have two Senate Races in 2006?

by Painter2004, Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:22:10 PM EST

From the diaries, although all quotes should have links, and if it is in anyway avoidable, the full text should never be used--Chris

Alren Specter has announced that he has Hodgkin's disease, if Specter should not be able to carry out his duties could Pennsylvania have two Senate Races in 2006? Has any State or Commonwealth ever had two Senate races in the same year in modern history? Here's the story (in the extended entry):

By Thomas Ferraro
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter, a Pennsylvania Republican, has been diagnosed with Hodgkin's disease, a treatable cancer of the lymph system, his office announced on Wednesday.

"Senator Specter has an excellent chance of being completely cured," Specter's oncologist, Dr. John Glick, said in a statement issued by the 75-year-old lawmaker's office.

His office said Specter is expected to be able to continue to perform his duties, which as Judiciary chairman includes helping shepherd through the Senate for confirmation President Bush's judicial nominees, who may include possible candidates for the U.S. Supreme Court.

Specter has also been busy with a measure he recently drafted to create a long-sought compensation fund for victims of asbestos, a fire-retardant mineral once widely used for insulation and construction that is linked to serious illnesses.

Specter has been absent from the Senate in recent days while undergoing testing, and word of his illnesses quickly spread to colleagues.

"He has a strong will, he is a person of strong faith," said Sen. Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat. "We hope to have him back here as soon as possible."

Specter is expected to receive chemotherapy every two weeks over the next 24 to 32 weeks at the Abramson Cancer Center of the University of Pennsylvania, his office said in its statement.

Glick said, "Senator Specter's Hodgkin's disease has a five-year survival rate of 70 percent. He is in superb physical condition."

Specter said in the same statement: "I have beaten a brain tumor, bypass heart surgery and many tough political opponents; and I'm going to beat this too."

"I have a lot more work," Specter, who won a fifth, six-year term in the Senate in November.

There are about 7,500 new cases of Hodgkin's disease diagnosed every year in the United States, Specter's office said.

"Senator Specter had experienced persistent fevers and enlarged lymph nodes under his left arm and above his left clavicle," his office said in its statement.

"He received testing on February 14th at Thomas Jefferson University Hospital" in Philadelphia, it said. "The testing involved biopsy of a lymph node and biopsy of bone marrow."

"The lymph node was positive for Hodgkin's disease. The bone marrow biopsy showed no cancer," it said.

His office said that tests at the Abramson Cancer Center of the University of Pennsylvania on Wednesday established that Specter has "stage IVB Hodgkin's disease."

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Permalink :: 43 Comments :: Post a Comment

Please don't (none / 0)

Can we please not speculate on his political career?

I offer my best wishes for a speedy recovery and that he get well soon.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 07:20:32 PM EST

Re: Please don't (none / 0)

I do wish him the best of health, I'm just throwing out a odd cituation that may occur because of this unfortuante news.

Councilman Bill Painter

by Painter2004 on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 07:26:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please don't (none / 0)

The heading of the diary just came off differently.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 07:52:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

basic research (3.00 / 1)

Long survival in Hodgkin's disease after diagnosis of the stage IVb is very rare. For Spector, the survival probability of 10% after 3 years.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 07:50:26 PM EST

Re: basic research (3.00 / 1)

That doesn't look very good for Spector I hope that he would beat odds, I heard on the local news in Pittsburgh that Spector had 70% chance of surviving after 5 years, but your information looks much more credible.

Councilman Bill Painter

by Painter2004 on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 08:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that's after surviving 5 years. (none / 0)

He's got a few years to go before he hits that survival threshold.

by Teaser on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 08:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Plus he's not young, lives high stress (none / 0)

Hell, I say the recent round of Specter bashing by the GOP gave the man cancer. I think Bush and Toomey and the Noise Machine should all be held responsible.

by jcjcjc on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 09:10:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: basic research (none / 0)

Oh. That doesn't sound too good. Hope he has a speedy recovery.

The Methodist Democrat: Where It's Happening

by Joshua Smith on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:52:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

1981 (3.00 / 1)

That study appears to be from 1981, back before they used stem cell or bone marrow transplants to treat lymphoma and about several generations ago as far as chemo goes. 24 years is a long time in cancer research. I think the odds are much better now, and much more in line with what his doctors said (above 70%).

by Flatiron Dante on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 11:10:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

good luck (none / 0)

sen. spector should do fine but at 75 maybe he should think about retiring and enjoying the rest of his life.possibly 2006 will have 2 senate races in pa. is that possible?

by temple1954 on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 07:52:05 PM EST

It's happened (3.00 / 1)

There were two Senate races in Oregon in 1996, although in staggered fashion. Bob Packwood resigned in Sept. 1995 (due to his busy hands); there was a special election in Jan. 1996 to replace him, in which Ron Wyden (D) beat Gordon Smith (R) in what was probably the most slime-filled race Oregon had ever seen. Mark Hatfield's seat was vacant in Nov. 1996 due to retirement, and Gordon Smith ran again, beating some no-name rich guy (I think it was Bruggere, maybe Lonsdale) in a more low-key race.

by Crazy Vaclav on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 08:08:13 PM EST

Re: It's happened (3.00 / 1)

It happened at the same time in Tennessee in 1994

Bill Frist defeated incumbent Jim Sasser in the regular election

Fred Dalton Thompson won the special election for Al Gore's old seat.

by wayward on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 10:40:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (3.00 / 2)

for U.S. Senator.

According to the Pennsylvania Statutes , if a vacancy occurs in the office of U.S. Senator, it would be filled temporarily by appointment, until the next "municipal or general election" following more than 90 days from the said vacancy, which by my unschooled eyes would mean the next November election. So if a PA Senator were to retire before August 7 (approximately), the special election to replace him would be 2005. The parties would have control over their nomination procedures, which I believe would leave them in the hands of the State Committees. The winner of such a special election would serve until the completion of what would have been the preceding Senator's term.

Hope this helps.

by PennStateDem on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 08:12:47 PM EST

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (none / 0)

Well, looks like then that there's about a 90% chance that Rendell is going to be appointing a Senator. Specter though is a hell of a fighter, he's not going out alive.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 08:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (none / 0)

That's a way to be pessimistic. Our friends at dkos are showing support for their family rather then speculating what may happen in the future.

I don't wish suffering on others. I'm an optimist. I send my best wishes and prayers to the Specter family.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 08:44:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (2.50 / 2)

Quit being so juvenile. This whole blog is about political elections and campaigns, not about the lives of Senators. If someone wants to speculate on what might happen with this seat should Specter die, we don't need you butting in with your condescending crap.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:18:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (none / 0)

You'll have to forgive me: I have two papers due tomorrow and a test so I am on the verge of losing my sanity.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:23:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (3.00 / 2)

hehe, the longer you stay here, the later you'll be up at night.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:39:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (none / 0)

ah, the joys of multi-tasking.

now, back to watching a decent sitcom so that i can write why reality television stinks.

i'm up late anyway--no class til 12:15 and I try and watch all of Late Night with Conan.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:44:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (3.00 / 1)

Ha.

Jerome- You, I assume because this blog is yours, are one of the only people I have seen who can call out KYDem on his BS (of which there is much) and he actually directly responds. (Example: I have asked him 5 times what values he has that make him a DLC supporter, and he has literally never answered.)

So, thanks for calling his BS, cause he listens to you.

Progressive Philadelphia Politics: Young Philly Politics

by DanielUA on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 11:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (none / 0)

Even though I am a stand-up comic, I was actually serious when I said I was on the verge of losing my sanity.

I have way too much time on my hands that should be spent more productively--working on school work, comedy, and my own blog.

When you have links on those sites, you listen to those people.

Now where was the shout out to MyDD.com on TDS tonight? I was so waiting for that to happen!

By the way, I have changed my signature in previous days.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 11:46:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (none / 0)

Yeah, but you do throw out a lot of comments and then don't respond when people call you on it. I can never figure out if it is just you being brash because you are at the know-it-all college age (we all have been through it so please don't take it personally) or you are afraid to back up what some of BS rhetoric that has been spouted. Glad to see you at least respond in this situation.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 12:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA Election laws § 2776. Special Election (none / 0)

i do not take it personal.

i have thick skin.

for that, i apologize.

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 03:54:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Old data (none / 0)

That study you cited is from 1981 (see my post below). The odds appear to be much better these days. Here's what WebMD has to say about it:

"Some cases of Hodgkin's disease are more serious than others, but the overall outlook for patients is very good. Ninety percent of patients with stage I or II cancers can be cured completely, and even patients with stage III or IV cancers can often achieve a full recovery. A recent study found that fewer than 20% of all patients die of Hodgkin's disease within 15 years of diagnosis."

And although this is a political campaign site, I just want to say that Senator Specter and his family are in my prayers tonight. Although the odds are good, this is very tough news and he's in for some rough times ahead (though one of the most painful parts -- the bone marrow biopsy -- is already behind him).

by Flatiron Dante on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 11:21:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He may just resign anyhow (none / 0)

Personally, I don't get why Specter continues to put himself through all this. Why? Just so he can be treated like shit by other Republicans?

by jcjcjc on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 09:07:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

PA's a special election state (none / 0)

That appointment would only last long enough to get us to a special election, if I recall right.

I can remember an off-year special election for a House seat. I wouldn't imagine any less effort be applied o a Senate seat.

Though, now we see why everyone is constantly belaboring the need for state parties to have a "deep bench".

Right here, with Casey and Hafer, the Dems stand good chance of flipping two US Senate seats in a single year.

by jcjcjc on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 09:05:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It has happended several times. (3.00 / 1)

1966 South Carolina, Thurmond wins re-election, Sen. Olin Johnston died in office Former Gov. Hollins defeats appointed Sen. in primary and wins the election.

1978 both Minnisota and Alabama had races in Minnisota the GOP sweep the races in Alabama the Democrats did.

In 1992 California the Democrats won both races

In 1994 in Tennesse the GOP swept the races.

by THE MODERATE on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 08:18:02 PM EST

For those who think pro-choice (none / 0)

(and not anti-life BTW) is the most reflective element in/of a political philosophy, as I do, then this Arlen Specter situation may not be a good sign. In PA, the last Governor--Repug Tom Ridge, the present Governor--Dem Ed Rendell and Repub Senator Specter are all pro-choice. Only Senator Santorum is against a woman's right to choose what happens to her body!! One might say that being pro-choice is very helpful in winning in PA! Now if somehow Young Bob casey wins against Santorum and later another Bob Casey look alike replaces Specter, we would have no pro-choice Senators from PA. That is something to worry about.

If being pro-choice is really that important in PA, this should not happen, and indeed what if two pro-choice repubs were to win! Something to think about.

by NG on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:06:36 PM EST

Re: For those who think pro-choice (none / 0)

I don't think there are many pro-choice Republicans that could win Statewide.

Councilman Bill Painter

by Painter2004 on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:46:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Probably will be no change (none / 0)

Casey Jr is anti-abortion. Barbara Hafer is pro-abortion.

I think they're both excellent candidates. Then again, I oppose abortion, but recognize nothing's going to change on that subject anytime soon.

I'm not really clear on who else the GOP would run. Odds are they'd let Toomey make another run just to split the difference. However, I find it mildly offensive that Toomey would try to steal a seat from a man with cancer that he couldn't win outright.

But, I find Toomey offensive, period.

No one wins PA without carrying Philly OR the Pittsburgh metro. So, whoever the GOP runs has to cover one of those bases.

Right now, their bench is pretty thin unless someone like Ridge steps out of retirement.

The only currently seated Republican I can think of who might be worth a try is Melissa Hart, a Rep from around Pittsburgh.

by jcjcjc on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 09:18:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

missed a word (none / 0)

I think you mean "pro-abortion rights".

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.

by Carl Nyberg on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 11:37:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: missed a word (none / 0)

and "anti-womens-health", or if you prefer "pro-back-alley-abortions". Or you could just say that you like coat hangers a lot...

Future Majority / Young Philly Politics

by Alex Urevick on Fri Feb 18, 2005 at 10:15:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is just speculation (3.00 / 1)

but, this is from a bunch of people who sort of are in the know: Many, many people in PA want to nominate Kathleen McGinty, state EPA chief to run. So, if there are two seats, expct her to run for the Specter special election, in my opinion.

Progressive Philadelphia Politics: Young Philly Politics

by DanielUA on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 11:14:46 PM EST

Purely hypothetical stetegic question (3.00 / 1)

Assume that you have an incumbent running for re-election in one seat and a special election for the other seat and you have two candidates, one clearly stronger than the other. The stronger candidate would probably easily win the open seat, but would probably be in a nail-biter against the incumbent, but that incumbent is vulnerable and may also fall to the weaker candidate.

Do you run the stronger candidate against the incumbent hoping to take both seats or do run the stronger candidate for the open seat, trying to maximize the chances of taking at least one seat. D

Does your opinion change if the open seat belonged to a Republican or a Democrat?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

by Anthony de Jesus on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 11:31:09 PM EST

Re: Purely hypothetical stetegic question (none / 0)

I say, gamble. Run the strongest campaigner you have against the incumbent, especially if you can embarass him and through the next strongest for the open seat. High Risk/High Reward. We as a party need to start playing it that way.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 12:22:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Two Senate elections (3.00 / 2)

The Minnesota election in '78 was called the "Minnesota Massacre". Wendell Anderson had won re-election easily as Governor in '74 he was considered a star on the rise--good-looking, athletic, and the architect of the "Minnesota miracle, a progressive education funding plan.

With Mondale becoming vice-president, Anderson decided to promote himself to Senator. He resigned as gov, and had his Leutenant Governor, Rudy Perpich, appoint him to Mondale's Senate seat. The backlash was huge. Unknown David Durenberger beat Anderson soundly. Perpich lost the governor's chair to congressman Al Quie.

The other seat had been held by the late Hubert Humphrey, and was held temporarily by Hubert's wife Muriel, after Hubert's death. Don Fraser, a liberal congressman who went home to be mayor of Minneapolis was the party's choice, but lost to trucking exec and former pro sports owner Bob Short who was anti-abortion and pro-gun. Short was swamped in the general election by Rudy Boschwitz, who had made his fortune selling plywood and running homey TV commercials.

Many Democrats in Minnesota think that if Anderson had appointed a caretaker instead of "appointing himself" all three of the statewide races would have turned the other way. Wendell's power grab ruined his promising career and energized the Republicans, who in the mid-seventies were in total disarray.

While Minnesota has been a blue state in presidential elections since 1978, Republicans have won more statewide races than Democrats in those 26 years.

by flatblade on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 07:48:08 AM EST

Something (none / 0)

like that could happen in CT, although not likely. If Liberman is defeated in a primary(unlikely) and Dodd runs for Gov, in Jan 2007, there could two next senators from CT.

by jj32 on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 09:01:43 AM EST

Does Scottish law allow for magic bullets? (none / 0)

If Specter retires (voluntarily or otherwise), what would the field on both sides look like for the special election?

And what makes for the best strategy? Do you put the strongest candidate up against Santorum? Or in the running for the open seat?

Or... I think Scottish law might allow the Machiavellian option of Rendell appointing someone to Specter's seat, who might then turn around and run, as an incumbent senator, for Santorum's seat, leaving the open field to compete for Specter's seat. Power of incumbency and all that.

Who's with me! (crickets chirping)

by Rabid Child on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 09:31:22 AM EST

Re: Does Scottish law allow for magic bullets? (none / 0)

I think you have to run Casey against Santorium. And let the open seat be slugged out by whoever wants it if 5 or 6 people want to run in the primary for it that's fine.

Councilman Bill Painter

by Painter2004 on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 10:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Scottish law allow for magic bullets? (none / 0)

I agree, run Casey against Santorum. The seat, hopefully, then changes from conservative to moderate and run someone like Hafer for the open seat and hopefully the politics of that seat change from moderate to moderate liberal. But then I think that Casey is the best chance to defeat Santorum period. According to Quinnipiac his approval rating is just above 50%. I believe this has more to do with incumbency and his leadership position in the house. To unseat an incumbent who is viewed by his constituents relatively favorably you need to put up somebody they like even better...hence Casey. Otherwise they may not see a reason to fire the guy, even if we can see many.

by Bothwell on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 01:16:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Didn't (none / 0)

Nancy Kissenbaum retire the same year that Bob Dole resigned his seat to run for president?

"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams

by Valatan on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 10:08:21 AM EST

2 concurrent Senate elections (none / 0)

I recall that in 1992, California had two Senate elections in November. In 1990 Senator Pete Wilson was elected Governor and appointed his replacement (State Senator John Seymour). A special election was held in November, 1992, for the remaining two years of Wilson's term, which was won by Diane Feinstein. At the same time Barbara Boxer defeated Bruce Herschensohn for the open Senate seat of retiring Alan Cranston.

by michaelrbn on Thu Feb 17, 2005 at 10:10:31 AM EST